Author: xPortfolios

Stocks ticked sideways on Tuesday while the dollar headed towards its largest monthly fall for years as investors braced for the trade war to be felt in earnings and economic data.U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs have rattled faith in U.S. assets and even though numerous backdowns have helped the S&P 500 (.SPX) recover much of its early April losses, the dollar has managed only to steady, without a big rebound.It slipped overnight when U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC it was "up to China to de-escalate" tariffs, which sit at 125% for most U.S. exports to China.A holiday in Japan thinned currency trade in the Asia session, leaving most pairs steady. But at $1.1409 and up 5% in April, the euro is set for its largest monthly rise on the dollar in almost 15 years, while the dollar's 7% drop on the safe-haven Swiss franc is the largest in a decade.Nikkei and S&P 500 futures drifted higher, helped by officials foreshadowing a softening in automotive tariffs, though investors were holding out for more meaningful relief on the eye-watering 145% U.S. tariffs on China.China has moved to make some exemptions but has held off on stimulus, betting Washington blinks first.China's…

Global equity markets held at their best levels in over three weeks on Monday, reflecting some hopes that the worst of tariff pain is over, but confusion over U.S. trade policy lingered and trapped the dollar.European shares opened higher, U.S. stock futures were mixed and Asia made fractional gains at the start of an earnings-heavy week that also sees the release of key U.S. jobs data and is book ended with elections in Canada and Australia. U.S. President Donald Trump looms large in both.Trade tensions remained a key focus.While Trump has claimed progress is being made on trade with China, and many other countries, evidence is lacking. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent failed on Sunday to back Trump's assertion that tariff talks with China were under way."The fact that we are going through a de-escalation in trade tensions doesn't mean that we won't still get a growth slowdown," said Mike Kelly, global head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments.The often confusing rollout of tariffs is expected to inflict lasting damage on the global economy as uncertainty weighs on business and consumer confidence, slowing investment and spending."Uncertainty is not just about a one-off event but its duration," Kelly added.MSCI's world stock index (.MIWD00000PUS)…

Asian stock markets headed for a second straight week of gains on Friday and the dollar for its first weekly rise in more than a month as investors have welcomed an apparent softening of the White House stance on China, despite no signal of detente.U.S. tech giant and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O) also beat profit expectations and reaffirmed AI spending targets, pushing its shares up nearly 5% in after-hours trade and pulling along peers and S&P 500 futures , which rose 0.5%.Overnight on Wall Street investors had shrugged off a mixed bag of corporate results and the S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 2%.The dollar, which has taken a beating through a volatile few weeks of tariff announcements, reversals and a flight out of U.S. assets has seemed to steady around $1.1350 per euro at 143 Japanese yen , with dollar selling abating in Asia on Friday."There is probably a feeling from market participants that they have regained some 'control' on the U.S. government, and can somehow force a more friendly stance on key topics," said ING currency strategist Francesco Pesole in a note to clients."Investors will be seeking confirmation of the more optimistic stance on U.S. assets to justify further dollar…

Stocks drifted on Thursday and a rebound in the dollar lost traction as investors tried to sift through the noise from the Trump administration and its fickle stance on tariffs and the Federal Reserve's leadership.Just this week, U.S. President Donald Trump has rained attacks on Fed head Jerome Powell, then retracted calls for the chair's resignation, and left investors none the wiser on the ultimate state of tariffs on China despite many headlines around it.The Trump administration would look at lowering tariffs on imported Chinese goods pending talks with Beijing, a source told Reuters on Wednesday, after a Wall Street Journal report that the White House is considering cutting its tariffs on Chinese imports.But Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later said that such a move would not come unilaterally, echoing comments from White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt."I don't think you can ever get used to the sorts of haphazard and flip-flopping that we've seen. It's extreme," said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG. "I think that's Trump - he wants to try and find the right levers to pull, and I don't think he's scared of trying something, and I don't think he's scared of walking it back if it…

Stock markets were enjoying a much-needed relief rally in Asia on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said he had no plans to fire the head of the Federal Reserve, and hinted at lower tariffs for China.The dollar jumped across the board after Trump walked back on threats to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which had badly shaken investor confidence in U.S. assets.Trump also reiterated he wanted to do a deal with China where tariffs would not be anywhere near 145%, but added that he would set the terms of a deal if Beijing did not enter talks.Earlier on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had been reported saying he believes there will be a de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions, but negotiations with Beijing have not yet started and would be a "slog"."While it is still early days, the mood in the market is evidently shifting and what was a strong 'sell America' vibe flowing through markets yesterday has in part reversed," said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone."Markets are becoming ever more conditioned to the President shooting from the hip and then reversing the stance like it was never a big issue."Investors reacted by buying back into beaten-down stocks…

Asian stock markets fought to hold their footing on Tuesday after a furious flight from U.S. assets undermined Wall Street and the dollar, while concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve piled fresh pressure on Treasuries.Relatively limited losses in Asia sparked talk that funds could be reallocating money to equities in the area, though the impact of tariffs on economic growth remained a major drag.President Donald Trump's increasingly vocal attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates saw Wall Street indexes shed around 2.5% on Monday and the dollar hit three-year lows."The 'sell America' trade was in full flight," said Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at NAB."Whether or not President Trump is legally able and willing to move against the Fed, the jousting underscores the loss of U.S. exceptionalism and the very real policy risk for investors."The selling did abate somewhat in Asia, allowing S&P 500 futures to bounce 0.4% and Nasdaq futures 0.5%.The market faces another test from earnings this week, with Tesla (TSLA.O) due later in the session, having already shed almost 6% on Monday amid reports of production delays.Also reporting this week are Alphabet (GOOGL.O) and a host of high-profile industrials including…

Asian equities and U.S. stock futures slid on Monday while the dollar slumped, as anxiety over tariffs and public criticism of the Federal Reserve by President Donald Trump hit sentiment, leading gold prices to a new high.Trump launched a series of attacks against Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday, with his team evaluating whether they could fire Powell, a move that has great consequence for the central bank's independence and for global markets.Most markets were closed on Friday and some remain on holiday for Easter Monday.S&P 500 futures fell 0.64% and Nasdaq futures eased 0.53%. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 1% while South Korea's benchmark index (.KS11) was steady."Markets are already on edge due to escalating geopolitical tensions, and now concerns are rising that Trump's potential interference with the Fed could add another layer of uncertainty," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo in Singapore."Any signs of political pressure on monetary policy could undermine the Fed’s independence and complicate the path ahead for interest rates just as investors are looking for stability amid global volatility."Trump's tariffs have roiled financial markets and triggered a violent selloff in Treasuries and the dollar that cast fresh doubt on the long-held belief…

Rising trade tensions and sweeping shifts in the global trading system will trigger downward revisions of the IMF's economic forecasts but no global recession is expected, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday.Georgieva said countries' economies were being tested by a reboot of the global trading system - sparked in recent months by U.S. tariffs and retaliation by China and the European Union - that had unleashed "off the charts" uncertainty in trade policy and extreme volatility in financial markets."Disruptions entail costs ... our new growth projections will include notable markdowns but not recession," she said in prepared remarks, adding the outlook would also include higher inflation forecasts for some countries."To quote from the 'Wizard of Oz', we're not in Kansas anymore," Georgieva told IMF staff and reporters at the IMF headquarters in Washington ahead of the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank next week.Elevated uncertainty also raised the risk of financial market stress, Georgieva said, noting that recent movements in U.S. Treasury yield curves should be taken as a warning. "Everyone suffers if financial conditions worsen," she said.U.S. President Donald Trump has upended the global trading system with a tsunami of new tariffs, including a 10%…

U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs have darkened the global economic backdrop, forcing big central banks to reassess their next steps.Policymakers outside the United States now look more likely to cut interest rates than they would have done otherwise - or in Japan's case raise them less.The U.S. Federal Reserve is in a tricky position.Here's a look at where 10 developed-market central banks stand.1/ SWITZERLANDThe Swiss National Bank does not meet until June, but it will be an interesting one, as markets expect it to cut rates to zero from 0.25%.The SNB says it would rather not go further and return to negative rates, but a surging Swiss franc is hurting an export-heavy economy and could push Switzerland into deflation.The franc is the best performing developed market currency since Trump's April 2 tariff announcement. The SNB's other oft-used policy tool, intervening to weaken the franc, could provoke the Trump administration, which says currency manipulation was one of the motivations for its tariffs.2/ CANADAThe Bank of Canada held rates at 2.75% on Wednesday - its first pause after seven consecutive cuts - saying it wanted more information on the impact of tariffs.Governor Tiff Macklem said uncertainty made it difficult to make economic…

Asian stocks wavered on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned of the risk of slowing growth and rising prices due to tariffs, while the uncertainty around U.S. trade policies kept the dollar rooted near three-year lows.The spotlight stayed on technology shares after a bruising session on Wednesday in the wake of warnings from bellwethers Nvidia (NVDA.O) and ASML (ASML.AS), and ahead of earnings from Taiwan's TSMC (2330.TW).Safe haven gold prices remained on the charge, notching up yet another record high in early trading on Thursday, while Powell's comments that U.S. economic growth appeared to be slowing pushed Treasury yields lower.In early Asia, stock markets were tentative across the region, after U.S. stocks closed sharply lower. South Korea's benchmark index (.KS11) inched 0.4% higher, while Taiwan stocks (.TWII) fell 0.5%.Japan's Nikkei (.N225) rose 0.7% while the yen weakened as Japan kicked off talks with the U.S. and President Donald Trump, in a surprise move to negotiate directly with the Japanese delegation, said there was "big progress".Elsewhere, Powell said the Fed would wait for more data on the economy's direction before making any changes to interest rates."Powell is between a rock and a hard place," said Tom Graff, chief investment…