Author: xPortfolios

Futures tied to Canada's main stock index rose on Wednesday, tracking its peers on Wall Street, as investors prepared for the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later in the day.The futures on the S&P/TSX index were up 0.2% at 0647 ET (1047 GMT). Wall Street futures were also higher.Traders expect the Fed to keep rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% and see only two further cuts later in the year.More than the central bank's decision, the spotlight will be on policymakers' economic growth outlook amid U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs and the resulting trade war with key partners like Canada, China and Europe.Canadian equities have lately come under pressure, reflecting a selloff globally as markets try to price in risks of recession due to the ongoing trade war.The TSX is largely flat for the year, erasing initial gains in the run-up to Trump's inauguration in January. On Tuesday, the benchmark index (.GSPTSE) ended lower on Tuesday after a data showed a surprise jump in domestic annual inflation.In commodities, oil prices fell on Wednesday after Russia agreed to Trump's proposal that Moscow and Kyiv temporarily stop attacking each other's energy infrastructure, a move that could eventually pave the way for Russian oil…

Turkey's currency, stocks and bonds tumbled on Wednesday after authorities detained President Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival on charges including corruption and aiding a terrorist group, in what the opposition called "a coup attempt."The move against Ekrem Imamoglu, the popular mayor of Istanbul, appears to cap an aggressive months-long legal crackdown on opposition figures across the country which has been criticised as a politicised attempt to silence dissent.MARKET REACTION:FOREX: The lira fell by as much as 14.5% at one point before paring some losses to trade down 7.4% at 39.40 to the dollar.BONDS: The 2045 dollar bond shed 1.6 cents in price to be bid at 85.078 cents, its largest one-day fall since early 2024.STOCKS: Turkish blue-chip stocks (.XU100) fell by nearly 6%, set for their worst daily performance since late 2023.COMMENTS:WOLFGANO PICCOLI, CO-PRESIDENT & DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH, TENEO, LONDON:"We will have to wait and see if Turkey is heading toward a political environment more similar to Russia, in terms of democracy and elections. This is not just an assault on political opposition, but also on key business groups that traditionally play a significant role in the country’s economy."WILLIAM JACKSON, CHIEF EMERGING MARKETS ECONOMIST, CAPITAL ECONOMICS, LONDON:"The sharp drop in…

Exor NV (EXOR.AS), the investment arm of Italy's Agnelli family, has increased its stake in health technology company Philips (PHG.AS) to 18.7%, a filing at the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission showed.Exor previously held 17.51% of Philips' shares, and was already the top investor in the Dutch maker of products ranging from medical imaging systems to toothbrushes.Exor was not immediately available for comment.Philips said it had no comment on the "independent decision" by Exor, but in general said it appreciates the confidence shown by long-term investors in increasing their stakes.Exor bought an initial 15.1% stake in Philips in August 2023, a boost at a time when the company was still grappling with a huge product recall dating back to 2021.In the year following that investment, Amsterdam-listed shares in Philips jumped almost 50%, also supported by a final deal on its sleep apnea machines reached with the U.S. government last year.But in the last six months, around half of these gains have disappeared as the company reported persistently weak sales in China.Exor, whose investments include manufacturing, media, fashion, sport and technology, has said it has a growing interest in the healthcare industry.Source: Reuters.com

Asian stocks were subdued on Wednesday and gold hovered near record highs as economic worries and a shifting geopolitical landscape kept risk appetite in check, while the yen steadied after the Bank of Japan held rates as expected.The yen was last at 149.33 per dollar, little changed on the day after a choppy initial reaction as policymakers sought to spend more time gauging how mounting economic risks from higher U.S. tariffs could affect Japan's fragile recovery.Rising odds of the Japanese central bank raising interest rates have helped push the yen 5% higher against the dollar so far this year, with it touching a five-month high of 146.545 per dollar last week.Having just raised interest rates in January, the BOJ board voted unanimously to maintain the bank's short-term policy rate at 0.5% at a two-day meeting that ended on Wednesday."In the end, however, it is a question of 'when' not 'if' the BoJ will hike again," said Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC."The next move could come as early as June, as more evidence of wage increases trickles in. The uncertain global trade outlook, however, could even push the next BoJ rate hike well into the second half of 2025."The…

Futures tied to Canada's main stock index were flat on Tuesday as investors awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve's outlook on interest rates and economic growth in the backdrop of an ongoing trade war.The S&P/TSX index futures were up 0.04% at 0650 ET (1050 GMT). U.S. stock index futures also struggled for direction.The benchmark index (.GSPTSE) rallied for a second straight day on Monday as some investors looked at the recent tariff-related selloff as a buying opportunity.The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged after its two-day meeting ends on Wednesday, but policymakers' views are now more significant amid the US' trade war with its key partners such as Canada, China and Europe.The Bank of Canada had raised concerns about inflationary pressures and weaker growth stemming from trade uncertainty after its policy meeting last week.President Donald Trump's tariff hikes are expected to put inflationary pressures and drag down growth in Canada, Mexico and the U.S., the OECD forecast on Monday.Canada's commodity-heavy benchmark index, however, could benefit from higher oil and gold prices.Oil prices rose more than 1% on Tuesday, supported by instability in the Middle East and China's plans for more economic stimulus.Gold hit another record high above $3,000, with…

Allocation to U.S. stocks saw the biggest drop ever in March with concerns over stagflation, trade wars and end of U.S. exceptionalism driving a "bull crash" in sentiment, a survey of investors from BofA Global Research showed on Tuesday.Global investors raised their allocation to cash to 4.1% from 3.5%, ending a "sell signal" triggered in December, with the speed of the downturn in sentiment being "consistent with end of equity correction", BofA said.Global growth expectations saw the second biggest drop on record, but, at the same time, allocation to euro zone stocks was the highest since July 2021, with banks becoming the world's favourite sector, according to the survey.The survey included 171 participants with $426 billion of assets under management.Source: Reuters.com

Hong Kong shares rose to three-year highs and led Asian markets higher on Tuesday, as investors turn positive on the outlook for the world's second-biggest economy and cheered recent data and promises to further support consumption.The Hang Seng (.HSI) was up 2% in morning trade and its 23% year-to-date gain is easily the largest of any major market.Short sellers rushed to cover bets against the New Zealand dollar , which is sensitive to China's consumer via food exports, sending it to a three-month high of $0.5827.The China-sensitive Australian dollar hit a one-month high just shy of $0.64 and China's yuan hovered near its strongest levels of the year so far.On Monday the OECD forecast U.S. President Donald Trump's higher tariffs will drag down growth in Canada, Mexico and the U.S. while driving up inflation.Yet China has been an unlikely winner of Trump's burst of tariffs and cuts to government spending in his first two months in office, as fears of a U.S. slowdown turn investors abroad."Momentum and sentiment (is) shifting now as well in a positive way," said Nick Ferres, chief investment officer at Vantage Point Asset Management in Singapore.On Sunday China announced childcare subsidies and a "special action plan"…

Argentina's economy is expected to have registered year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, ending six consecutive quarters of year-on-year contraction and further lifting it out of recession, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Monday.The average forecast from 15 local and international analysts showed Argentina's gross domestic product (GDP) expanding 1.7% in the last three months of 2024."It's the first positive sign after six consecutive quarters of (year-over-year) contraction," said Pablo Besmedrisnik, economist and director of VDC Consultants.Besmedrisnik said the positive expectations were boosted by Argentina's recent fiscal and trade surpluses and improved inflation outlook, although domestic and international risks loom.The surveyed analysts' estimates varied between a minimum and maximum GDP growth of 1.1% and 2.2% respectively for the fourth-quarter.However, analysts agreed that Argentina's annual GDP for 2024 as a whole will still show economic contraction, albeit at a lower level than previously expected.A recent central bank survey of analysts forecast economic growth of 4.8% for 2025.Argentina's national statistics agency will publish official GDP data for the fourth quarter on Wednesday at 4:00 p.m. local time (1900 GMT).Source: Reuters.com

Futures tied to Canada's main stock index dipped on Monday, tracking its Wall Street peers, while investors looked towards the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later this week.The S&P/TSX index futures were down 0.1% at 0647 ET (1047 GMT).The benchmark index (.GSPTSE) logged its biggest daily advance in seven months on Friday, tracking a market-wide rally. However, investors doubted whether the selloff due to U.S. and Canada's trade war had run its course.Despite Friday's gains, the index ended 0.8% lower last week.Focus is now on the U.S. Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Traders widely expect the Fed to keep rates on hold, but they will look for policymakers' comments about the central bank's policy outlook amid concerns that economic growth could be hit by the trade war.U.S. stock index futures fell on Monday, a day after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that there are "no guarantees" the United States will escape a recession.In commodities, oil rose on Monday after the U.S. vowed to keep attacking Yemen's Houthis until the Iran-aligned group ends its assaults on shipping.Gold edged higher after it hit the $3,000 mark for the first time last week, while copper prices also nudged up on the…

President Donald Trump's tariff hikes will drag down growth in Canada, Mexico and the United States while driving up inflation, the OECD forecast on Monday, cutting its global economic outlook and warning that a broader trade war would sap growth further.In the case of a generalised trade shock, not only will U.S. households pay a high direct price, but the likely economic slowdown will cost the United States more than the extra income the tariffs are supposed to generate, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development estimated in its interim outlook.Global growth is on course to slow slightly from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, the Paris-based policy forum said, cutting its projections from 3.3% for both this year and next in its previous economic outlook, issued in December.But the global picture masked divergences among major economies with resilience in some big emerging markets like China helping to make up for a marked slowdown in North America.The proliferation of tariff hikes would weigh on global business investment and boost inflation, leaving central banks little choice but to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously expected, the OECD said.The organisation updated its forecasts assuming tariffs…